By Keerthi G.
Merkel’s impending exit comes as Europe prepares for an uncertain time. The European
Union is set to begin tough negotiations with the United Kingdom over its post-Brexit
relationship. The US and the EU are on the verge of a potential trade war, and the potential
re-election of Donald Trump could put even more strain on NATO and traditional Western
alliances. Germany’s own political chaos could make all of this much more complicated.
But this is all considered part of the process of change, as German Chancellor Angela
Merkel has said that the decision not to run for office again in 2021 has allowed her to focus
on tackling the coronavirus pandemic and other pressing problems during her final year in
office.
Germany’s early success in combatting the virus, especially as compared to the U.S. or the
U.K., has afforded Merkel both the political capital and the confidence to become more
proactive on the European stage.
This is primarily because COVID-19 is believed to have brought to light the practical
capabilities of Angela Merkel, once again highlighting her as an efficient leader. As a trained
quantum chemist, she’s been managing the outbreak like the scientist she is, with pragmatic
policies based on the expertise of epidemiologists.
She does not consider the coronavirus as something to declare war against, but instead
something to overcome and grow from experiencing.
“Europe needs us, just as we need Europe,” she told a sparse gathering of MPs just in late
June in a speech meant to lay out her vision of the country’s upcoming EU presidency,
which began the following week.
Given that European countries previously used to relying upon China and the US cannot turn
for inspiration or aid in that direction, and given that Germany is the largest country in the EU by population, and Merkel one of its most influential leaders, Germany’s firm but not
controlling leadership of the EU is considered essential.
Approval ratings for Merkel, and her party the centre-right CDU, went up in recent months
during the pandemic. In polls, she became Germany’s most popular politician again, with an
approval rating of 71%.
However, Merkel has ruled out seeking a fifth term and remained reserved about her post-
retirement plans.
She believes—and rightly—that helping Europe is central to Germany’s national interest.
Merkel’s increasing willingness to cajole her EU partners into accepting a more muscular
German industry marks a break with Berlin’s historic relationship with Europe. It is expected
that her successor continues to take the reins with a firm but loose stronghold, and
contribute to a better German direction of Europe, in their effective governance.
But who that successor will be is no longer such a sure matter as it was in February. Her
appointed successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer stood down back in late February due to
a series of electoral misses, divisions over the party’s direction and an apparent lack of
authority.
Following this, three people are seen as front-runners in the leadership race that followed:
Friedrich Merz (who was narrowly beaten by Kramp-Karrenbauer in the leadership vote),
current Health Minister Jens Spahn and the state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, and
Armin Laschet (who is considered to almost certainly seek support in a coalition government
from the left, especially from the recently ascended Greens).
Of the favourites, Laschet, with his experience as Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia
and advantage of continuation if elected might be regarded as too close to Merkel, while
Merz might have the slight advantage in having run last time and only coming narrowly
behind Angela Merkel. He is considered more suitable for those looking for a bigger change
after her reign and perhaps considered better suited to deal with the opposition.
Laschet recently faced a test with local elections in his western state, where his success
would boost his chances to being Merkel’s successor, especially in a region where he has
faced criticism for his handling of the coronavirus, and since polls suggest CSU leader
Markus Soeder to be the Union's chancellor candidate, when no chancellor has ever come
from the CSU. Winning this would be a crucial step in establishing Laschet’s potential
chances at being the next chancellor in times to come.
The CDU in fact has defended its position as the strongest force in Germany’s most
populous region, North Rhine-Westphalia in municipal elections, a result that shall enhance
Laschet’s position as he vies to succeed Merkel.
As the Local has stated, ‘Armin Laschet, who is running to replace Angela Merkel as she
steps down as Chancellor in 2021, said on Monday in Berlin that he had "tailwind" for his "moderate course"
His future position as Chancellor is now slightly more favourable, especially given Merz’
stray insensitive remark about the middle class, and his corruption entanglements involving
his suspected role in stealing billions of euros from German taxpayers.
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