By Grace Baldwin
Back in 2018, the picture of world leaders surrounding President Donald Trump at the G-7 Summit went viral, quickly becoming a meme and representing to many the new United States’ relationship with its allies. Beyond this picture, what is going on with President Trump’s foreign policy with European allies? What does the 2020 US Presidential Election have to do with it?
Many American foreign allies grew nervous when President Donald Trump was first elected. During his campaign and throughout his presidency, he has been vocal about his belief that the US protects its allies with little compensation and has been critical of the situation and commitments under NATO.
The Issue of Defense
Back in 2016 while running for president, Donald Trump said that he may make military support conditional on the basis of payments made by allies in Europe and Asia. In an interview with the Atlantic Times, he said “they have an obligation to make payments. Many NATO nations are not making payments, are not making what they’re supposed to make. That’s a big thing.”
Fast forward several years and President Trump said during his GOP convention speech earlier in August that “NATO partners, as an example, were very far behind in their defense payments, but at [his] strong urging, they agreed to pay $130 billion more a year...and this $130 billion will ultimately go to $400 billion a year”. Previously, in commitments made before he took office, American allies promised to spend 2% of their GDP on its own defense. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said about the President that “He is committed to NATO.” President Trump has said in the past that Germany “owed us billions of dollars, billions of dollars to NATO” and accused the country of profiting off US soldiers.
Ambassadors in Europe
President Trump’s ambassadors are also coming into conflict with American allies, as Ambassadors are meant to represent US interests, but a few patterns suggest they are coming into conflict with European allies and violating traditional norms.
The US Ambassador to the Netherlands first drew ire when he hosted the Forum for Democracy, a claimed alt-right, anti-immigration, and anti-EU party that is gaining traction in the country. Marietje Schaake, a former Dutch MEP and international policy director at the Stanford Cyber Policy Center remarked that “Normally, diplomacy is about government-to-government interactions, not promoting particular viewpoints and giving the impression of having political allies.”
A former US Ambassador to Germany said he wants "to empower other conservatives throughout Europe” during an interview with Breitbart News. Having strong political beliefs as an ambassador is not at all uncommon, but those that make them clear during their tenure overseas is untenable.
Cynthia Schneider, a former US Ambassador to the Netherlands, recounts a time when she was chastised by her Deputy Chief of Mission for voicing her joy at a Democratic victory in a special election. She says “allies and adversaries alike expect Ambassadors — whether political appointees or career foreign service officers — to represent the United States of America, not the private interests of an individual president.”
Effects
In a recent interview with the Clements Center, Evelyn Farkas, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia said that many of America’s European allies are less cohesive without the presence and support of the US. She says that as the US pulls away, national interest for these countries takes center stage. For example, elsewhere, the Filipino president is kowtowing to China, as allies make deals, not to their benefit in the long run but to satisfy their needs and close geographical nations in the short run. Increased national fervor and declining interest in the EU as seen with Brexit also show how countries such as Belarus and Switzerland are dealing with the isolation themselves, one descending into political turmoil and the other voting on whether to allow free movement of EU citizens.
The 2020 Election in Europe
What does a Trump or Biden mean for US Allies? Two important things come into play with the outcome of the 2020 election: trade and foreign policy.
For all of the European Union’s exports, the US makes up for about 14%, a number similar to the United Kingdom. In the event of a blue wave and Biden winning, one may see an easing of tariffs and US-EU trade tensions. Significantly more work with NATO and the WTO on behalf of a Biden administration is also possible as multilateral agreements become more focused on. In the event of a red wave and the re-election of Donald Trump, tensions between the US and EU may remain, with fragmentation resulting as many of the individual EU countries appeal with their own national interest to nations such as Russia and China in trade agreements. Increased pressure for the EU to support NATO is also highly likely.
Europe has been caught in the crossfires of the US-China trade disputes in the last few years, and if Biden becomes president, then it might mean ease in tension with China and ease in tension with the EU as a whole.
Foreign Policy in the 2020 Election
President Donald Trump is running his re-election campaign on the basis that he has fulfilled promises to get American allies in line and maintain US military supremacy around the world. On his website, he lists a foreign policy accomplishment: “persuaded allies to develop national plans to boost defense spending up to two percent of GDP by 2024”. As opposed to Vice President Joe Biden, who has committed himself to rebuild alliances he says are fractured under President Trump, the latter’s rhetoric appeals to his base who want US allies to be held more accountable.
Vice President Biden has said “The next president must repair our relationships with our allies and stand up to strongmen and thugs on the global stage to rally the world to meet these challenges. We can reclaim our longstanding position as the moral and economic leader of the world.” In regards to his picks of ambassadors, even saying “I’m going to appoint the best people possible… Nobody, in fact, will be appointed by me based on anything they contributed.” He has declined to say whether or not he may or may not give jobs to campaign contributors, though it may be said that is not an uncommon practice.
The general consensus is that most Americans do not want this militaristic “America first” policy. In a poll from the Pew Research Center, 68% of Americans want the US to take into account the interest of its allies when deciding foreign policy and overwhelmingly favour diplomacy over shows of military strength (73 to 26%).
As the US’ reputation abroad plummets due to its COVID response, with just 34% viewing the country favourably when people in 13 countries were asked, to what degree this perception along with US ties to its allies matter in the minds of Americans is something to be seen.
Sources:
The University of Texas Clements Center, Webcast: Global Politics in the Era of Trump, Presented by Evelyn Farkas
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