By Ruhan Desai
Since its inception, ASEAN has not only doubled in membership but has also successfully weathered both the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global economic crisis of 2008–09, to become the sixth-largest economy globally.
The beauty of ASEAN is that it manages to bring together states with different economic and political systems which oftentimes becomes a challenge because of high regional disparitySingapore for example, boasts the highest GDP per capita in the grouping—nearly $53,000 based on 2016 World Bank figures—while Cambodia’s per capita GDP is the lowest at less than $1,300.
The members’ political systems are equally mixed with democracies, communist, and authoritarian states. Demographics vary across the region, too; some countries are sparsely populated, others are densely populated with range of dominant religious groups. Geographically, ASEAN is a grouping of archipelago nations, as well as continental land masses with low plains and mountainous terrain.
As a result of this diversity, It becomes very hard for unanimous agreement on any one issue as nations oftentimes have different mindsets and opinions about an issue. The main issue which shows the rifts in the grouping is the South China Sea Issue. Many of the ASEAN nations have staunch territorial claims against China while some have different opinions about the issue. Major Setbacks of the grouping are the multiple human rights violations like the persecution of the Rohingyas in Myanmar. It is quite true that there are challenges; However, closer coordination and setting of common objectives among ASEAN states can effectively promote stability and lessen the prospect of conflicts including both intrastate and interstate conflicts.
A principle enshrined in the ASEAN Charter is that of non-interference in the internal affairs of ASEAN Member States, which hold the member countries back to discuss the issue of Rohingyas. But now the countries are pitching in as it has become more of a regional crisis than an internal one.
In stark contrast to the growth on various parameters, the ASEAN region has been regressively performing in standards of human rights and democratization. For instance, The Thai military regime is attempting to extend its power. In Cambodia, the long-term government of Hun Sen is trying to stay in power by attacking opposition parties and the media. The Democratization of Myanmar has far to go. The government there under Aung San Suu Kyi has been widely criticized for its failure to protect the Rohingya people, who have been subjected to rampant human rights violations. In Indonesia, a country where secularism is assumed to have been the governing rule, identity politics linked with Muslim and other religious values is growing, undermining the stability of Indonesian politics and society.
India shares a very unique relationship with the grouping because of similar culture and religion. Still, there are few major challenges in India’s engagement with ASEAN, like India’s economic structure is comparable to most of the southeast Asian countries; domination of agriculture, cheap human resources, availability of natural resources, etc. This can mean that India and ASEAN states may compete for the same production work.
Another major area of concern is the China Factor: The formidable challenge for India is to balance its relations with China in the Indo-Pacific region. China is, on one hand, is the largest trading partner for India, on the other hand it is perceived as a potential security threat against India. Matters of contention include unresolved border problems like that of Arunachal Pradesh, competition for the resources and markets in Asia, Africa, and South America, the encircling strategy of China, disputes over Belt Road Initiative and the CPEC part of the initiative are the most important problems in India China relationship. China’s only challenger to achieving regional hegemony in India and that is why I believe relations have taken a turn for the worse.
These issues have been testing the strength of the bilateral relations time and again. Since all nations, big or small, within the association grouping have a deeper economic engagement with China, it is an enormous challenge for India to deal with China and develop strong relationships with ASEAN states in the Indo pacific region.
With regards to economic relations- On trade, we are nowhere near reaching the goal of $200 billion by 2020 set five years ago. Connectivity projects with the ASEAN, like the trilateral highway to Thailand via Myanmar, are years behind schedule. India has struggled to fulfil the demand for better maritime and defence partnerships. Although, India has started defence collaborations with states like Singapore and Vietnam, there is clearly a lot more that is realistically possible.
Handling global pressure in forging relationships with ASEAN is another challenge for India. In the early 2000s, the Indian Maritime doctrine stressed on the shift in maritime focus from the Atlantic-Pacific to the Indo -Pacific region. India has tried to concentrate efforts towards the Indo-Pacific by increasing cooperation with the nations that are beyond the ASEAN region. The quadrilateral talks involving India, the US, Australia and Japan have wider ramifications. As a part of its ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy, the United States has vested interest to nudge India to play a greater role in the Indo-Pacific region. It can be reasonably assumed that the “China Factor” is a big determinant for all United States actions in the Asia-pacific region and maybe the world. Similarly, Japan and Australia seem to prefer to involve India to neutralize anti-China overtures. Despite these challenges, India’s commitment towards developing and maintaining better relations with ASEAN has never been compromised. India is committed to helping the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam) in their economic development.
Connectivity has become the keyword in ASEAN-India cooperation. This is because of a shared cultural history. The Indian Position draws largely from developing people to people connectivity, which in result, would develop India’s wider interests in the form of a soft Power position.
ASEAN faces these challenges and their existence definitely depends on whether sustainable solutions are found or not.
Originally posted at www.theteendiplomat.com
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