By Saamiya Laroia
From his initial withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a linchpin in Japan’s Asian trade strategy to tariff threats on account of a misguided notion of ‘tremendous imbalance’ in US-Japan threats, Donald Trump fundamentally disturbed the bedrock of US-Japan ties.
Trump’s tariffs have been a continuous thorn in Japan’s side ever since Trump’s refusal to exempt Japan from increases in steel and aluminum tariffs. Japan was also one of the most affected countries by the indirect effect of the US-China trade war, with the operations of Japanese multinational corporations in China being adversely affected, leading to reductions in stock prices. Trump’s demands for a four-fold increase in payments for US troops in Japan, disinterest in attending multilateral meetings like East Asia Summit, U.S. troop withdrawals across the Asia-Pacific region, and his off the cuff remarks about withdrawing the United States from the US-Japan security treaty signed in 1951, all pointed to his administration’s alarming lack of respect and solidarity for one of its closest allies.
The crucial US-Japan alliance seemed to fall on the rocks at an ill-timed period of rising Chinese aggression, North Korean stockpiling of nuclear warheads, and the devastating Covid-19 pandemic. Japan essentially endured public humiliation on the world stage as Trump offhandedly confirmed Japan’s subordinate status to the US. Fears of entrapment, abandonment, and unreliability in the US-Japan alliance may have pushed Japan into a course of more autonomous conduct that may extend well beyond the Trump Administration’s term. The past four years of pressure and disparagement have bared the realities of the unequal nature of the US-Japan alliance and the emissary status of Japan within it and Biden’s election is unlikely to quell Tokyo’s raging debate on whether the alliance is sustainable. There have been tangible policy decisions showing a shift in Japan’s conduct because of Trump’s term, most markedly through Japan turning to Australia as a possibly important ally. In November of 2020, Japan’s new prime minister Yoshihide Suga said a broad agreement had been reached on a pact with Australia allowing their military forces to operate in each other’s countries. This signals a significant divergence from Japan’s postwar formula of heavy dependence on the US for strategic rapport. This also reflects a reality that East Asia’s geopolitical situation is unlikely to return to pre-Trump conditions despite Biden’s hope of a quick restoration of American alliances. To Japan, the fact was that Trump was elected by the American public and also had a solid chance at re-election is enough to keep its policymakers uncertain of American commitment to Japan’s security.
While President Biden has attested to the fact that he will make moves to rebuild US alliances, his focus seems to be completely on domestic issues for the time being. If Biden does not take direct and effectual moves to rebuild the US-Japan alliance, the consequences would be dire. He should begin heightened cooperation with Japan on issues of climate change, strengthening multilateral institutions like the East Asia Summit, and most importantly on upholding peace in the Korean Peninsula. Japan was one of the most vocal proponents of the ‘maximum pressure’ approach to North Korean diplomacy. However, President Shinzo Abe’s opinions on the matter were said to have been dismissed by Trump. Japan’s perspective was completely disregarded and Trump ended up pursuing the opposite of a hardline approach with Kim-Jong Un, he even expressed sympathy with North Korean objections to joint US-South Korea military exercise. This was a drastic example of US unilateralism in a case where the US should have consulted its two Asian allies, Japan and South Korea instead of leaving them in the dark. Biden should commit to a cohesive alliance-based approach to North Korean diplomacy, meeting with both South Korea and Japan to draw a comprehensive road map of action.
The allies, Japan especially, will remain skeptical of Biden’s pledges of alliance restoration unless they see real, tangible results. Biden has not outlined any defined policy steps he will actually take to restore the relationships with his Asian allies but it would be in the United State’s best interest to have a concrete outline to increase US engagement and presence in Asia because repairing the cracks Donald Trump created in ties like the US-Japan alliance will not be possible through vocal reassurance alone.
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